US LNG exports will be vital to global supplies by the second half of the decade as demand will outstrip supply by more than 5 billion cubic feet per day absent the US production, Bentek Energy analysts Javier Diaz and Kelly Bennett said last week at the consultancy's annual Benposium.
LNG demand over the coming decade will soar, Bentek predicts, topping 50 Bcf/d by 2020, up more than 66% from todayâ€™s total exceeding 30 Bcf/d. New supply, however, will lag behind demand as mega-projects typically run behind schedule.
Consequently, the market will require exports from the US as early as 2014-15 to reach a balance, Bentek predicts. The shortfall could be as much as 5.5 Bcf/d by 2018 without US exports.
US LNG developers have proposed far more export capacity than would be required, although the market and regulators will sort out which projects ultimately go to construction and operation. The 12 onshore projects and one offshore venture have a combined capacity of 19.5 Bcf/d, far more than Bentekâ€™s calculations show is needed (LNGI May18'12).
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