Bentek
The new BENTEK Productivity Index™ (BPI) reveals the impact of dry natural gas drilling declines and rig migration to liquids-rich plays in the U.S.

Wednesday, June 13, 2012

BENTEK’s new Market Alert, The New BPI: A Rig Count That Makes Sense, reports the active rig count has failed as an indicator of U.S. natural gas production trends. Due to improvements in technology and drilling efficiencies, the productivity of each rig is now just as critical as the rig count in determining production trends. BENTEK’s new BPI provides a base measurement of productivity, standardizing the rig count across all U.S. basins and creating a benchmark that can be used as a base upon which production forecasts can be made. For example, the BPI reports that one rig operating today in the Haynesville shale is as productive at producing dry natural gas as 55 rigs in the Permian, 38 rigs in the Bakken and seven rigs in the Texas Gulf Coast/Eagle Ford, which are currently targeting wet-gas and oil plays.

BENTEK’s new Market Alert predicts production in dry gas plays to fall 564 MMcf/d in June, offsetting the 472 MMcf/d increase from liquids-rich plays. This overall production decrease is in spite of gains expected in the Marcellus, Eagle Ford, Permian, Anadarko and Bakken. Despite the massive drop of active U.S. natural gas rigs to 10-year lows and the migration of many rigs to plays that are rich in oil and gas liquids, dry gas production is only now beginning to retreat from record highs. The new BPI is a valuable tool to help understand the impacts of producer behavior on natural gas production.

Key features of BENTEK’s BPI:

• Provides a standardized method to count active natural gas and oil rigs

• Creates a benchmark to monitor dry gas rig productivity

• Explains the disconnect between the rig count and natural gas production

• Illustrates the underlying trends in U.S. natural gas drilling activity

By taking these base productivity measurements from the BPI and considering other factors such as maintenance, shut-ins, hurricanes and production freeze-offs, BENTEK’s Production Monitors, The Market Call and Forward Curve Quarterly provide production forecasts over longer time periods. The Market Call and Forward Curve Quarterly forecasts currently show lower production this summer and fall, followed by a return to production growth in the fourth quarter. The BPI for each basin also will be released each month in BENTEK’s regional natural gas Production Monitor series. In addition, the total U.S. BPI will be released monthly in a separate report.

ALSO AVAILABLE FROM BENTEK:

BENTEK’s full line of natural gas Production Monitors provide regional, basin-specific analysis of drilling and production in the U.S. and Canada, including five-year production forecasts, drilling economics and pages dedicated to BPI rig activity data.

The Market Call is BENTEK's monthly publication that pulls together the fundamental natural gas market dynamics to provide a comprehensive, forward-looking view of the U.S. market, including a sector-by-sector analysis of the underlying factors that drive prices.

BENTEK’s Forward Curve Quarterly provides five-year natural gas forecasts for fundamental factors such as supply, demand, production and pricing. This quarterly publication analyzes the long-term effects of market events and indicated how key market factors will be changing over the next five years.

To learn more, please contact your BENTEK sales representative or call BENTEK Sales at 1-888-251-1264.