Rising U.S. gas production at the end of BENTEK’s five-year forecast period is expected to temper the potential price impact of increasing demand from LNG exports and the power sector

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

BENTEK’s Forward Curve Quarterly forecasts U.S. dry gas production will increase more than 10 Bcf/d over the next five years, primarily due to growth in the Marcellus play in the Northeast, the Eagle Ford in Texas and other unconventional plays across the nation. In order to handle growing natural gas liquids production from rich-gas plays, processing capacity is scheduled to expand nearly 10 Bcf/d by the end of 2013. This incremental capacity is expected to facilitate continuing rapid production growth through the five-year outlook.

Between 2012 and 2017, BENTEK expects more than 30 GW of new natural gas-fired generation capacity to be added, which could equal up to 3 Bcf/d of natural gas demand. In addition, natural gas generation is expected to capture a growing share of the power market as low natural gas prices and environmental regulations continue to foster the retirement of coal-fired units. Industrial demand for gas is projected to rise to 19.5 Bcf/d in 2017 from 18.2 Bcf/d so far in 2012. The latest Forward Curve Quarterly forecast also predicts that LNG exports from the Lower 48 states will reach 2.5 Bcf/d by December 2017 from zero today.

BENTEK’s Forward Curve Quarterly provides five-year forecasts of the fundamental factors affecting the U.S. natural gas market, including a Henry Hub price forecast and in-depth long-term analysis of dry gas production, Canadian imports, Mexican exports, LNG sendout, LNG exports, and demand from the residential, commercial, industrial and power sectors.

Highlights from the Q3 2012 edition of BENTEK’s Forward Curve Quarterly:

• Power Burn Trims Storage Injection Rates Early in Summer

• Bearish Market Sentiment Nearing Exhaustion

• Global LNG Supply Shortage Grows Through 2015

• Conversions From Fuel Oil to Gas Will Continue in the Res/Comm Sector

• Gas Gaining Market Share in Power Sector as Coal-fired Generation Falls


The Market Call is BENTEK's monthly publication that pulls together the fundamental natural gas market dynamics to provide a comprehensive, short-term outlook of the U.S. natural gas market. This report includes a forecast of the average monthly Henry Hub spot price, as well as short-term forecasts of dry gas production, storage, imports, LNG sendout, industrial demand and power burn.

With its industry-leading view of production, imports, demand and storage, BENTEK’s Supply/Demand Balance is a must-read report for anyone following the day-to-day natural gas market. This report provides the daily natural gas supply/demand balance for the U.S., plus market insights on price trends, breaking news, pipeline outages and major industry developments.

To learn more, please contact your BENTEK sales representative or call BENTEK Sales at 1-888-251-1264.