TGP Zone 4 Marcellus natural gas cash basis will suffer substantial discounts to Henry Hub over the next few years as the large inventory of non-producing wells in northern Pennsylvania keeps incremental pipeline capacity highly utilized

Thursday, August 23, 2012

BENTEK’s Northeast Market Call reports the natural gas cash price for TGP Z4 Marcellus will experience sustained weakness through the summer of 2013, trading at an average of almost $0.50 below Henry Hub. Due to the large inventory of non-producing wells awaiting infrastructure in the northern Pennsylvania counties that supply production to the TGP 300 Line, BENTEK expects planned regional expansions to fill quickly over the next few years. As a result, local cash prices will be significantly discounted to both Henry Hub and nearby Northeast markets.

BENTEK’s Northeast Market Call provides the crucial insight needed to make forward-looking decisions on the Northeast natural gas market. This monthly report offers a three-year Northeast basis forecast through a sector-by-sector analysis of the underlying factors that drive the regional market, including production, storage and demand.

Key features of BENTEK’s Northeast Market Call:

• Three-year seasonal forecast for Northeast natural gas supply, demand and storage
• Basis forecasts through 2014 and analysis for the following markets:
o Transco Z6 (New York and non-New York)
o TCO Appalachia
o Dominion South
o TGP Z6 and Z4
o Algonquin Citygate
o Iroquois Z2
• Northeast expansions and maintenance impacts
• Commentary for buyers and sellers


The Market Call is BENTEK's monthly publication that pulls together the fundamental natural gas market dynamics to provide a comprehensive, short-term outlook of the U.S. natural gas market. This report includes a forecast of the average monthly Henry Hub spot price, as well as short-term forecasts of dry gas production, storage, imports, LNG sendout, industrial demand and power burn.

BENTEK's Forward Curve Quarterly provides five-year forecasts of the fundamental factors affecting the U.S. natural gas market, including a Henry Hub price forecast and in-depth long-term analysis of dry gas production, Canadian imports, Mexican exports, LNG sendout, LNG exports, and demand from the residential, commercial, industrial and power sectors.

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