Even with record-high levels of U.S. natural gas demand from power generation set last week, storage levels are expected to test last year’s inventory high

Wednesday, August 01, 2012

BENTEK’s The Market Call reports year-to-date natural gas demand from power generation is 24% or 4.9 Bcf/d higher compared to last year. The majority of this increase can be attributed to sustained coal-to-gas switching, the onset of the peak power season in July and record-high summer temperatures. To reflect these market changes, BENTEK has revised the U.S. power burn forecast in the August edition of The Market Call upward by an average of 1.0 Bcf/d through the end of summer, with average power burn of 24.4 Bcf/d forecast for October.

As a result of record-high power burn levels, average daily U.S. gas storage injections for July were 53% or 4.8 Bcf/d lower than last year. As of July 22, daily U.S. storage injections averaged 4.1 Bcf/d. Even at these reduced injection rates, BENTEK expects storage inventories to encounter constraints by the end of summer and test last year’s high. The Market Call is forecasting the U.S. storage inventory to reach 4.0 Tcf by the end of October, which has the potential to depress regional prices near the fullest storage fields.

The Market Call is BENTEK's monthly publication that pulls together the fundamental natural gas market dynamics to provide a comprehensive, short-term outlook of the U.S. natural gas market. This report includes a forecast of the average monthly Henry Hub spot price, as well as short-term forecasts of dry gas production, storage, imports, LNG sendout, industrial demand and power burn.

Headlines from the August edition of BENTEK’s The Market Call:

• Natural Gas Demand From Power Generation Should Remain High as Heat Continues

• Strong Power Trims Storage Injections; Inventories Remain Robust

• Cooling Season Pricing In Lock with Fundamental Forecast

• Lower Net Canadian Imports Expected, But Decline Less This Year

• Marcellus Production Output Slowing; Increase Not Expected Until Year-End


BENTEK's U.S. Power Burn Report provides a daily resource for U.S. gas demand in the power sector, including in-depth regional power burn analysis. This report provides year-on-year power burn demand comparisons as well as 14-day regional demand forecasts.

BENTEK's Forward Curve Quarterly provides five-year forecasts of the fundamental factors affecting the U.S. natural gas market, including a Henry Hub price forecast and in-depth long-term analysis of dry gas production, Canadian imports, Mexican exports, LNG sendout, LNG exports, and demand from the residential, commercial, industrial and power sectors.

To learn more, please contact your BENTEK sales representative or call BENTEK Sales at 1-888-251-1264.