Imports of crude oil to the U.S. from historically significant providers such as Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela and Nigeria will struggle for dwindling market share over the next decade

Wednesday, September 05, 2012

BENTEK’s new North American Perspective section of the Crude Awakening: Shale Boom Hits Oil Market Alert forecasts waterborne crude oil imports to the U.S. will plummet 87% or 5,782 Mb/d over the next 10 years to an average of 874 Mb/d by 2022. BENTEK expects U.S. crude oil imports from Canada to grow from 2,606 Mb/d in 2011 to 4,268 Mb/d in 2022. Growth in Canadian imports to the U.S. will be a key driver in allowing the U.S. to wean itself almost entirely off waterborne sources of crude. The Market Alert reports only 5% of total U.S. crude oil supply will be sourced from overseas by 2022.

Key takeaways from the North American Perspective section of BENTEK’s Crude Awakening Market Alert:

• BENTEK’s new 10-year U.S. crude oil forecast shows a 74% or 4,906-Mb/d production increase by 2022 from current levels. Activity in the Eagle Ford and Bakken plays is driving much of the new production growth. Together, those two plays will add nearly 2,400 Mb/d to the U.S. crude supply by 2022.

• Due to the large increases in North American production and limited uptick in demand, waterborne imports are expected to plummet 5,782 Mb/d over the next 10 years to an average of just 874 Mb/d in 2022. These changes will dramatically reduce U.S. dependence on overseas crude.

• The next decade will bring billions of dollars of investment in the upstream, midstream and downstream segments to facilitate the transport of growing production. Crude-by-rail will become a greater component of the transportation matrix over the next decade.

• Outright WTI prices will fall as much as $16/bbl by the end of 2017. LLS will tighten to WTI but will disconnect from Brent as domestic light crudes compete against more expensive waterborne crudes.

Review the long-term U.S. and Canadian crude oil market in BENTEK’s upcoming webinar:

Topic: Crude Awakening: 10-Year North American Perspective
Date: Wednesday, Sept. 12, 2012
Time: 2:00-3:00 p.m. MDT
Host: Jodi Quinnell, Manager, BENTEK Oil Team


BENTEK’s new Crude Oil Balances dataset provides 10-year supply and demand forecasts for crude oil in every region of the U.S. and Canada, enabling you to analyze the long-term market and be confident with your business strategy.

The Crude Oil Production Monitors provide comprehensive U.S. and Canadian coverage of the leading oil plays, including regional production forecasts, drilling activity, transportation and refining constraints and pricing analysis.

BENTEK's Petroleum Project Tracker is a cumulative database where information on all upcoming U.S. and Canadian crude oil infrastructure projects can be accessed, helping you monitor the potential impact of these projects on regional pricing differentials, storage opportunities and supply transportation routes.

To learn more, please contact your BENTEK sales representative or call BENTEK Sales at 1-888-251-1264.