Bentek
Algonquin Citygate is susceptible to upside pricing risk this winter as limited pipeline capacity and dwindling LNG imports leave the New England gas market supply short.

Thursday, November 01, 2012

Bentek’s new Market Alert, New England: A Demand Island in a Sea of Supply, forecasts average Algonquin Citygate cash basis this winter to exceed last winter’s price levels by $0.50. Algonquin basis will remain prone to price spikes this winter due to constraints that limit pipeline inflows from the Marcellus and leave the Algonquin market dependent on LNG and Canadian imports, which serve nearly 30% of peak New England demand. Uncertainty about when the Deep Panuke gas production project will come online is also adding significant winter price volatility to the New England market.

Bentek’s New England: A Demand Island in a Sea of Supply Market Alert analyzes the market conditions that are contributing to surging New England gas prices this winter, providing you with new insight to help you evaluate key dynamics in the New England natural gas market.

This study includes seven forecast scenarios for Algonquin Citygate winter cash basis:

• Bentek’s Expected Algonquin Citygate Base Case
• Base Case with Deep Panuke Online
• Base Case with Low Canaport LNG Sendout and No Deep Panuke
• Cold Weather (similar to winter 2010-11) Base Case
• Cold Weather Base Case with Low Canaport LNG Sendout and No Deep Panuke
• Warm Weather (similar to winter 2011-12) Base Case
• Warm Weather Base Case with Deep Panuke Online

Gain key market intelligence and review Bentek’s New England winter price forecasts with this new Market Alert. Access the key takeaways by reading the overview.