BENTEK expects Utica and Southwest Marcellus production to quadruple by 2017, while Northeast PA drilling will slow significantly due to pipeline constraints.
BENTEK’s Taming the Beast: Marcellus, Utica & Northeast Exports™ reveals capacity constraints in Northeast Pennsylvania are inevitable by midsummer and that only a significant decline in dry gas drilling activity would reduce the large non-producing well inventory to a manageable level by 2017 and alleviate long-term supply pressure.
In contrast to the pullback in the dry Marcellus, BENTEK expects liquids-rich production in the southwestern Marcellus and Utica shales to grow 5.3 Bcf/d by 2017. This Market Alert indicates that local supply will completely fill Texas Eastern Pipeline (TETCO) capacity by 2015 and that constraints will be entirely the result of growth in residue gas out of the Utica. BENTEK reports that these dynamics will lead the Northeast to become a net gas exporter by 2017. Areas such as the Southeast/Gulf, Canada and the Midcontinent all will be impacted as Marcellus and Utica gas pushes into these markets.
BENTEK’s Taming the Beast: Marcellus, Utica & Northeast Exports Market Alert provides a detailed examination of Northeast supply and demand growth over the next five years, including the potential for pushback to other U.S. regions or LNG exports. This Market Alert presents three potential drilling scenarios based on available takeaway capacity and well inventory: 1) Continued drilling at the current pace, 2) a 25% decline in drilling activity and 3) a 50% decline in drilling activity.
This Market Alert also includes dynamic graphs and charts that allow you to click-through to an Analytical Storyboard™, where you can watch these market developments unfold over time.