Crude oil production in the U.S. will increase 4,906 Mb/d by 2022 and Canadian crude oil imports to the U.S. will increase substantially over the next decade. Waterborne imports will plummet during this time to only 5% of total U.S. crude oil supply by 2022 compared to 45% in 2011.

Thursday, August 30, 2012

BENTEK’s new North American Perspective section of the Crude Awakening: Shale Boom Hits Oil Market Alert forecasts U.S. crude oil production will grow 74%, or 4,906 Mb/d, over the next 10 years to an average of 11,553 Mb/d in 2022. This record growth will have dramatic implications for both the North American and global crude oil markets. Over the next decade, Canadian imports to the U.S. are expected to grow substantially, providing more than 80% of the total crude imported by 2022. These supply changes will result in massive displacement of waterborne oil imports into the U.S. By 2022, waterborne imports are expected to plummet to only 874 Mb/d compared to 6,656 Mb/d in 2011.

BENTEK’s Market Alert also forecasts that U.S. and Canadian oil prices will remain under downward pressure relative to international benchmarks. Outright WTI prices are expected to fall as much as $16/bbl by the end of 2017, with LLS disconnecting from Brent crude prices as light crudes compete for market share in the Gulf Coast.

BENTEK’s new North American Perspective section of the Crude Awakening Market Alert series includes 10-year crude oil supply and demand forecasts for the U.S. and Canada, including regional production, overseas imports, regional inflows/outflows, refining demand projections and an examination of crude oil transportation constraints. This Market Alert provides comprehensive analysis of how growing crude oil production will influence overseas imports to the U.S. and price spreads to global benchmarks.

Key takeaways from the North American Perspective section of BENTEK’s Crude Awakening Market Alert:

• BENTEK’s new 10-year U.S. crude oil forecast shows a 74% or 4,906 Mb/d production increase by 2022 from current levels. Activity in the Eagle Ford and Bakken plays is driving much of the new production growth. Together, those two plays will add nearly 2,400 Mb/d to the U.S. crude supply by 2022.

• Due to the large increases in North American production and limited uptick in demand, waterborne imports are expected to plummet 5,782 Mb/d over the next 10 years to an average of just 874 Mb/d in 2022. These changes will dramatically reduce U.S. dependence on overseas crude.

• The next decade will bring billions of dollars of investment in the upstream, midstream and downstream segments to facilitate the transport of growing production. Crude-by-rail will become a greater component of the transportation matrix over the next decade.

• Outright WTI prices will fall as much as $16/bbl by the end of 2017. LLS will tighten to WTI but will disconnect from Brent as light crudes compete for market share in the Gulf Coast.

Review the long-term U.S. and Canadian crude oil market in BENTEK’s upcoming webinar:

Topic: Crude Awakening: 10-Year North American Perspective
Date: Wednesday, Sept. 12, 2012
Time: 2:00-3:00 p.m. MDT
Host: Jodi Quinnell, Manager, BENTEK Oil Team


BENTEK’s new Crude Oil Balances dataset provides 10-year forecasts for crude oil in every region of the U.S. and Canada, enabling you to analyze the long-term market and be confident with your business strategy.

The Crude Oil Production Monitors provide comprehensive U.S. and Canadian coverage of the leading oil plays, including regional production forecasts, drilling activity, transportation and refining constraints and pricing analysis.

BENTEK's Petroleum Project Tracker is a cumulative database where information on all upcoming U.S. and Canadian crude oil infrastructure projects can be accessed, helping you monitor the potential impact of these projects on regional pricing differentials, storage opportunities and supply transportation routes.

To learn more, please contact your BENTEK sales representative or call BENTEK Sales at 1-888-251-1264.