Temperatures in Los Angeles are forecast to reach their highest so far this summer at 71 degrees Fahrenheit Thursday and Friday -- 7.5 F above normal and 3.8 F above the seven-day average. The ambient temperatures won't add much upside to Southwest demand but a cold front hitting the Northwest may bring temperatures in Seattle to as low as 47.8 F Thursday, about 4.3 F below norms. Total demand in the Northwest is forecast to increase to 1.35 Bcf/d Thursday to Friday, up 190 MMcf/d or 16% from the seven-day average. The current diverging weather patterns through the end of this working week are forecast to flip going into the weekend as the Northwest may warm up considerably while Southwest temperatures will start declining back to normal. Incorporating the two-week forecast, Southwest power burn and total demand will likely set the lowest April average over the past 10 years of Platts Analytics Bentek history at 1.85 Bcf/d.
A planned outage on the TL-400 Line on Dominion led to substantial production declines in SW PA and WV for gas day 25, although evening cycle estimates for gas day 26 show a rebound. The outage, which began on Tuesday and is scheduled through Friday, spurred a nearly 500 MMcf/d drop in production for gas day 25. The TL-400 Line extends westward across Ohio to interconnects at Lebanon with ANR and Texas Gas, serving not only as a tie-in for several gathering systems but also as a major outlet for production takeaway. Notably, production in Ohio was largely spared, with a 220 MMcf/d decline at the Plum Run gathering meter on Dominion offset by a near-equal increase in receipts onto Tennessee Gas Pipeline from the Dominion East Ohio Holmes gathering meter. Production in SW PA from the Houston processing facility, which ties in with National Fuel, fell by about 260 MMcf/d. In West Virginia, receipts from the Sherwood, Mobley, and Majorsville processing plants, which deliver into TCO, Equitrans, and TETCO, respectively, fell by a combined 313 MMcf/d. Aside from production, TL-400 Line deliveries at Lebanon dropped to zero, down from a 480 MMcf/d prior 30-day average.
Total US production fell to 70.2 Bcf/d Wednesday, down 0.2 Bcf/d from Tuesday and 0.4 Bcf/d from the prior seven-day average. The moderate declines are primarily centered in the Midwestern regions, which fell by a combined 0.3 Bcf/d Wednesday. Northeast production recovered moderately to 23.5 Bcf/d, up 0.1 Bcf/d from Tuesday but still off 0.3 Bcf/d from the prior six-day average. Total US power burn rose to 21.7 Bcf/d Wednesday, a 0.7 Bcf/d build over Tuesday, led by the Northeast where power demand is expected to hit 6 Bcf/d Wednesday, a 0.8 Bcf/d build over Tuesday. This build, however, was more than offset by a 0.1 Bcf/d drop in Northeast ResComm demand. LNG feedgas deliveries have remain subdued Wednesday, averaging 1.5 Bcf/d, down another 0.1 Bcf/d from Tuesday and down 0.5 Bcf/d from the prior six-day average.