Westcoast Pipeline released its December capacity forecast for the Huntingdon interconnect which lifts restrictions that have impacted flows for the past several months. But exports at Sumas are not expected to consistently stay at the 1.1 Bcf/d year-to-date average. According to the Westcoast Pipeline notice, Huntingdon, which sits to the north of Sumas, is expected to have a capacity of 1.7 Bcf/d every day in December, roughly the same capacity as December of 2014. Flows tend to serve demand between Huntingdon and Sumas before the remaining gas is exported to Washington. In December 2014, exports through Sumas fluctuated between 0.7 Bcf/d and 1.2 Bcf/d. A review of last December’s data suggests that ResComm demand in the Huntingdon area was the driving factor. On days when less than 800 MMcf/d was exported at Sumas, temperatures in the Vancouver area averaged 31 degrees F which pushed demand in the Huntingdon area to 850 MMcf/d. On days where exports at Sumas were higher than 800 MMcf/d, temperatures averaged 45 degrees and demand in Huntingdon was just 620 MMcf/d. Temperatures over the next week are expected to be in the low 40’s, suggesting exports at Sumas should average around 1 Bcf/d. While this is close to the year-to-date average, any restriction of volumes at Sumas will likely strengthen basis at the hub.
Southeast production has fallen to 10.5 Bcf/d over the past two days, driven by falling Mississippi offshore receipts -- down roughly 136 MMcf/d from the 30-day average -- largely due to declines at the Destin pipeline at the MC 254 Delta House production point which has fallen to zero after averaging 168 MMcf/d over the prior 30 days. Destin announced a force majeure at its MP260 Platform this weekend for all receipt points on its 24" lateral, and will not be able to provide transportation service from any points within its 24" lateral. This includes receipt points at VK900, VK989, MC254, MP281, MP283 and MP261LP. The estimated time for completion of maintenance work has not yet been determined. Destin said it was unknown whether repairs would lead to a complete shut-in of all Destin offshore receipt points and it was possible they could have an impact on Destin’s ability to provide transportation service from MP260 to and through the Pascagoula Gas Processing Plant.
SoCal is expected to finish a month-long maintenance on Tuesday, affecting the Blythe subzone. The scheduled maintenance began November 4, cutting 135,000 dekatherms a day of capacity, on top of the voluntary decrease of 20%, or 202 MDth/d, of capacity that has been in effect for the past few years to improve the safety of the pipeline. This left gross operating capacity of the zone at 923 MDth/d over the past month, but scheduled volumes have only neared this capacity on a handful of days. SoCal’s interconnect with El Paso at Ehrenberg supplies the southern system, while the North Baja Blythe interconnect is rarely used. Receipts at Ehrenberg have averaged 712 MDth/d since maintenance began, and have only topped 800 MDth/d on five days in that timeframe, while flows averaged 861 MDth/d in the month leading up to the maintenance. Ehrenberg cash basis has averaged 5 cents higher than Needles during the maintenance, while the spread was 3 cents the previous month.